Doors Floors and More

Cited: Reuters

Signs of weakness in the US economy recovery are the earnings from key retailers and may influence stock investors. Other data from industrial production, housing and inflation data will also be checked as stocks finish their worst week in last 6 weeks. The week of August 8-14 saw selloffs that drove stocks back into negative territory for the year.

Technical charts show “sell” signals, indicating more weakness. At the same time, some analysts say the market may be due for a bounce.

Wal-Mart Stores (WMT.N) is expected to announce results along with top tech names such as Hewlett-Packard (HPQ.N), which came into the spotlight this week after its CEO’s resignation late last Friday.

So far this earnings period, some 75 percent of results from Standard & Poor’s 500 .SPX companies have beaten earnings estimates, according to Thomson Reuters estimates, offsetting a batch of economic reports that pointed to a slowdown in the recovery.

But for retailers, which typically round out the earnings period, results have been less optimistic. If forecasts from J.C. Penney Co Inc (JCP.N) and others are any indication, reports next week could confirm concern about a weaker outlook for the sector.

“The tone among retailers has changed somewhat, and the outlook now looks somewhat less upbeat than it did earlier this year in the retail space,” said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist at RDM Financial in Westport, Connecticut.

“We’re likely to hear more about somewhat sluggish consumer spending.”

On Friday, J.C. Penney forecast a profit for the year below Wall Street’s expectations and said its customers were vulnerable to weak economic conditions, a day after department stores Kohl’s Corp (KSS.N) and Nordstrom’s (JWN.N) gave conservative profit outlooks.

The Federal Reserve also gave a bleaker outlook on the economy this week.

BEWARE OF FALLING SOX

Technology shares led losses, with the Nasdaq ending the week down 5 percent, while the Dow was down 3.3 percent and the S&P 500 was down 3.8 percent.

An index of semiconductors .SOX fell more than 4 percent on Wednesday ahead of results from Cisco (CSCO.O), while the index broke through the lower end of its trading range on Thursday following Cisco’s weak revenue forecast.

On Friday, the SOX ended down 0.9 percent.

The SOX will be watched closely next week when Dow component and technology bellwether Hewlett-Packard reports results.

Hewlett-Packard, whose chief executive resigned following an investigation into sexual harassment charges brought by a female contractor, is due to report earnings on Thursday.

READING THE TECHNICAL TEA LEAVES

Charts show short-term momentum turned negative this week. The S&P 500 closed below its 14-, 50- and 200-day moving averages and the moving average convergence-divergence generated a “sell” signal.

The negative slopes on the 14- and 50- day moving average also indicate weakness.

The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, and the Bollinger Bands show the S&P 500 has not reached oversold levels, and support for the index is seen around the 1,060-1,057 area, with 1,060 as the 23.6 percent retracement of the 2010 high-to-low slide between April and July, and 1,057 the low in a mid-July pullback.

Still, some analysts say stocks may be ripe for a bounce next week following the recent weakness.

“I think the tone is negative, but I think the market is trying to go higher,” said Terry Morris, senior vice president and senior equity manager for National Penn Investors Trust Company in Reading, Pennsylvania.

“The (Federal Reserve) meeting is out of the way, and some disappointing economic numbers, and I think that all spells a higher market next week,” he said.

The S&P 500 ended Friday’s session down 0.4 percent, but traded near flat for much of the day.

The overall sentiment in the options market was slightly bearish but the CBOE Volatility index .VIX, Wall Street’s favorite barometer of fear, suggested investors shouldn’t be too worried for now.

August VIX futures that expire next Wednesday were trading just a tick above the VIX, which rose 2 percent on Friday to close at 26.24.

“Considering that these are futures that expire in 3 1/2 trading days, the market is not bracing for anything too volatile for next week at least,” said Randy Frederick, director of trading and derivatives at the Schwab Center for Financial Research in Austin, Texas.

Industrial production data is due on Tuesday, along with housing starts and the government’s Producer Price Index report.

On Friday, data showed the overall U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 0.3 percent in July. It followed some concern about deflation expressed by the Fed earlier this week.

“Given the sensitivity to the Fed statement earlier this week, all of those items (next week) will probably get a little more scrutiny than normal,” said Fred Dickson, chief market strategist of The Davidson Cos. in Lake Oswego, Oregon.

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EYES ON RETAILERS’ REPORT CARDS

But the long list of retailers slated to report next week should attract plenty of attention as well, especially given that parents and students are preparing for the start of another school year in the next few weeks. School is already in session in some states, while it will resume in other states after the Labor Day weekend.

Retailers expected are Wal-Mart and HP among others. Target, Urban Outfitters, Abercrombie & Finch, The TJX, Limited Brands Gap, Sears holding Corp. and Staples results are also expected as well as home improvement chains such as Home Depot and Lowe’s. These are due to report along with Intuit.

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My Take: They always choose the big names to get their numbers from. Why is that? Well, probably because the little guys like San Diego CA wedding decorations don’t get to big business. Yet, they still do a lot of business with people because they handle San Diego CA wedding chair covers as well as other wedding decorations.

They need to take some interest in the little guy because that little guy can have an influence on the economy just as much as the big guy does. People were working this in various industries still need flame resistant clothing that they can’t buy Wal-Mart or even target. They might be able to go to JC Penny’s and get Carhartt clothing or steel-toed boots, but I doubt they can buy specialty clothing there.

And what about the big vendors that supply schools like folding chairs or display cases. Do they even take into consideration their retail sales? What about the guys that specialize in whiteboards, blackboards or chalkboards? It just seems strange to me that they pick and choose who is going to tell us how the economy is really doing. Just curious!

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Cited: Time

The 1st day of a four-day yard sale extravaganza stretching from Michigan to Georgia, find Patsy and Larry Hagood sitting pretty just after lunch. The trailer they brought with them from Canton North Carolina is now half full of great finds that include loveseat with wild grapevines, an antique wrought iron plant hanger and a huge artificial Christmas tree. “I’ve wanted to do this all my life. It’s my birthday present, but we’re also shopping for our kids,” Patsy states happily as she points out that she still has $1800 of the $2000 she brought to spend.

On the first weekend in August, tens of thousands of yard-sale fans from across the U.S. converged on Highway 127 between Hudson, Mich., and Gadsden, Ala., to pick through tables laden with junk in hopes of making incredible finds. Mountains of $1 designer blue jeans sprawl next to antique cars (a restored Model T: $8,000; the rusted chassis of another: $1,000), bins overflowing with costume jewelry, Avon bottles and ancient hardware. And then there’s the sublimely ridiculous: only $1,000 for a huge chunk of driftwood pulled from the Sequatchie River a couple of nights before the sale; $300 for an “authentic Samurai sword” with a “Made in China” stamp. People plan vacations around the sale, and neither bumper-to-bumper traffic nor temperatures hovering in the high 90s nor afternoon thunderstorms could dissuade sellers and shoppers alike from turning out for it.

There are professional sellers hawking antiques in rented yards and hay fields at the side of the road, with normal yard sales with handmade signs on poster board or cardboard pointing the way. Tim and Vanlicia Ferguson of Homestead, Fla., were visiting family in Dunlap and decided to take advantage of opportunity to get rid of the stuff overflowing their RV and Tim’s mother’s garage. “Our stuff is priced to sell because I don’t have any desire to put it all away again,” Vanlicia says, telling a woman to make an offer on one of three microwave ovens. Despite being several blocks away from the official yard-sale route, the Fergusons had a steady stream of traffic pulling into their driveway. “I think a lot of people have caught on to the pros setting up on the main drag and have taken to the back roads,” Vanlicia says.

Farther south on 127, 6-year-old Callie Tate took advantage of the heat and traffic to sell 50 Kool-Aid drinks while her mother Tara and assorted cousins, aunts and uncles filled a relative’s front yard with clothes, old toys and furniture. “It’s not something we do every year,” Tara says. “This year I’m just selling my stuff and stuff people gave me to sell for them.”

In a barn south of Crossville, Tenn., Barb and John Medema of South Kalamazoo, Mich., took in all of the offerings, from the 100-year-old oak mantel leaning against one wall to the lectern once used by the retired minister who owned the building. The Medemas had planned their trip for two years and intended to cover nearly all of the yard-sale route. “We just like to go to garage sales and thought it might be interesting, and it has been well worth the trip,” John says.

This annual trip is an adventure for Patsy Hagood. It’s not about the economy, gas prices were flying prices. It’s about 4 days of traveling with her husband, eating sandwiches with items bought at a roadside stand and the possibility of making an incredible find. “It’s the hunt,” explains Edith Hardeman, who, with her husband David, managed 2 booths at a roadside spot near Mt. Airy TN. While Edith sold old advertising and Coke memorabilia, her husband David talked with regular customers about his vast offering of vintage records. “We’re into it, buddy,” Edith laughs. “We are into it.”

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My Take: My mom’s best friend, God rest her soul, would it kill them to go to that yard sale. She could not pass up a yard sale to save her life. She would find some of the most interesting things to yard sales and some were pretty cheap. I remember one time she found some of that organic skin care stuff that normally is very expensive for a dollar. I checked out some organic beauty products and they are great for the skin, but expensive.

I remember one year, I went to a local yard sale (usually happens every weekend) and I found the most unique Halloween costumes I had ever seen. It turned out that they were handmade by the lady running the yard sale for kids. We even had one of her sexy costumes out to sell. That woman had to gift to sew! My mom used to make my Halloween costumes when I was a kid, but she could never do what this woman did.

One thing I was always leery about at yard sales was the cell phones. You can find some of the best used cell phones at any yard sale, the question is were they stolen? You never knew! You could easily find used Nextel and used Verizon mobile phones at a yard sale. They might be last year’s version, but they’re usually in good condition.

That would’ve been a vacation trip Phyllis would have loved!

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Cited: Reality Times

A forecast that was put out recently included some important observations on housing but did not get the attention it deserved by Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke. He spoke to the economic club of New York describing well-known problems standing in the way of economic growth. In particular the double digit unemployment and consumer confidence that is shaky week-by-week at best.

But buried away in his speech he said: Housing in the coming year is going to be a relative bright spot - a helpful driver of national economic growth, rather than the wet blanket it’s been for the past couple of years.

Think about that: Home sales and new home construction, at least according to the Fed, are likely to stimulate the economy in 2010 — enough to generate jobs and help avoid a double-dip recession.

That forecast just happens to track nicely with another that came out last week: Fannie Mae issued its projections for the coming year — and predicted that housing sales will jump by 11 percent — even in the face of a slow recovery for the economy as a whole. Meanwhile, scattered reports from hard-hit local real estate markets suggest that there may be some reasons for guarded optimism.

For example, research firm MDA DataQuick’s latest report on sales and prices in southern California, including the counties of Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernadino and Orange, found that October sales were up nearly three percent over September, and that prices are rebounding as well.

October sales in San Bernadino were 11% higher than September. In Ventura, they were up nearly 10%. Median prices for the six counties were up almost 2% for the month, but were still 6.7% below where they had been in October of 2008. Now, as is almost always the case, not all the news is on the up side. New home starts dropped by a surprisingly large, seasonally-adjusted 10.6%, according to the U.S. Commerce Department.

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A lot of the decline came in multifamily housing apartment starts — a volatile month by month index — which plummeted by 35%. But there’s no sugar coating here: starts of single family homes dropped by 6.8%, which was enough of a negative to spook Wall Street.  The magic potion for home buyers this week is mortgage rates that are dropping again further into the upper 4% range. Fixed rate 30 year loans have averaged 4.8% and the popular 15 year loans averaged just 4.3% according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. This was thrown into the mix at the end of November, no wonder Wall Street a spooked.

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My Take: I think I can understand why housing would stimulate the economy, it would make more jobs available to people. More jobs means paychecks and that means people can afford to purchase homes. By building more homes, they create jobs. Workers would be needed to install granite kitchen counters, plumbing, electrical, etc.

Of course, more housing in Bethesda would mean that they would need Maryland house cleaning services, which would also create more jobs in the cleaning industry. Of course those services would have to make sure that they knew how to clean granite slabs properly. I am sure that they would know how to do it. One thing is definitely for sure that maid services MD are always needed as they are everywhere.

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Porches are a great place to start when decorating, an antique rocker or primitive chair gives it a nice touch that invites your guest to sit and relax. Next add an old wood crate or keg as an accent piece that doubles as a plant stand. Finish it off with a hand painted welcome slate and be sure to include some primitive décor as well. Then as you step inside the door, a braided rug will help to warm that cold tile foyer floor. Next add a primitive piece of furniture such as a hall console, adorned with a candle or a lamb for rustic lighting and added warmth.

Cited: Associated Press

It seems that retail sales and clothing fell in November, but online sales came back with a boom. It seems that the strategic discounting that retailers are using our luring shoppers back. Retail sales did show signs of improvement in early fall, but clothing and luxury items weakened a bit the first half of November in comparison to year ago when shoppers were lured in by massive amounts of discounts.

Electronics sales have grown solidly this month, however, compared with the first half of November last year, when stores didn’t discount electronics as much. And online sales, where growth had slowed this year, are roaring back.

“It was a little bit softer,” said Michael McNamara, vice president at SpendingPulse, referring to the weak apparel and luxury figures. He cautioned against comparing the first half of November this year and last very closely.

“When you think about the discounts last year, they were broad-based emergency discounting.” Last year’s discounts encouraged consumers to spend more early in the holiday shopping season than this year’s more restrained — though ubiquitous — promotions.

“While there are some great deals, retailers are in a much better position and are more strategic with their discounting,” McNamara added.

SpendingPulse found that sales of women’s clothing fell 3.3%; sales at department stores fell 7.1%; footwear sales slipped 1.5%; and men’s apparel sales dipped 1% for the period from Nov. 1 to Nov. 14.

Overall apparel sales rose in October after many months of declines starting in July 2008. Luxury sales, which rose in September and October, had shown declines since August 2008. Online sales, where the figures haven’t shown a monthly decline since the recession started in late 2007, did taper in the spring.

But e-commerce is enjoying a rebound now, with sales up 19.4% the first half of the month. Online sales rose 5.2% in July, 12% in August, 15% in September and 18.7% in October, McNamara said. McNamara said this year’s rising gas prices have helped online sales because shopping online lets consumers drive less.

Electronics sales rose 6.1% the first two weeks of this month, helped in part by coupons and other enticements that retailers like Best Buy Stores Inc. offered to boost sales. Electronics sales rose 5% in September and I.2% in October, compared with a year earlier, McNamara said.

Major department stores like Wal-Mart stores Inc., Sears Roebuck & Co. and Toys “R” Us already are utilizing deep discounts that are usually reserved for the day after Thanksgiving, Black Friday, when holiday shopping usually begins in earnest. In fact, many retailers began advertising in earnest for holiday spending early this year.

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My Take: It is only logical that online sales rise; they do not have any other way to go. There are a lot of clothing stores but not advertise on the Internet because that is where most people look for sales. In the article is correct in that people are looking for ways to avoid using gas because it’s too expensive. That leaves Internet shopping.

You can go online and find pop culture T shirts for the same price if not cheaper than in-store shopping. In fact some of those same T-shirt retailers offer custom T shirt designs that you cannot get in-store. The only problem with buying clothing online is if you get the wrong side so unique and make sure you do get the right size.

Buying clothes online is not like buying sports tickets online. Clothing, like sexy costumes, can be difficult to return if there is something wrong. The main thing is that you have to pay for the shipping and handling to return. However, you can get the R & B tickets online and it is the best way to purchase them to avoid long lines. Clothing like Halloween costumes will probably be cheaper after Halloween.

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